Less than a week before the special election in FL-06 Democrats have gotten good news about the special election in Pennsylvania. “Democrat James Malone has won an open Pennsylvania state Senate seat in a major upset in a district that comfortably voted for President Trump in November.” The news reverberated around our makeshift GOTV war room last night. Trump carried that district in November with 57 percent of the vote and continues the trend where Democrats succeed in special elections. (The district has a 23-point Republican voter registration advantage, about the same as FL-06, which is 49% Republican and 26% Democrat.) Given the fact of how tired most of us are (we are mostly old and it was past our bed time), the renewed burst of energy was welcome.
Clik here to view.
Earlier in the day a Punchbowl News article stiffened us:
Are Republicans blowing a Florida special election?
House Republicans shouldn’t have to worry about Florida’s 6th District special election on April 1. It’s a deep-red seat that former Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) won by 33 points five months ago before decamping for the Trump administration.
But many GOP officials are concerned that Republican candidate Randy Fine’s lackluster fundraising and sky-high Democratic enthusiasm could put the race in uncomfortably close territory.
Fine, a GOP state legislator, has raised just under $1 million since entering the race and has just $93,000 on hand. Meanwhile, Democratic candidate Josh Weil has brought in a stunning $9 million and has $1.2 million on hand.
And this follows the news of the poll that showed a much tighter race than people had imagined:
Among those polled who said they already voted, more than half supported the Democrat. Weil leads 51% to 43% among those whose decision has already been made via a mail-in ballot or in-person early voting. According to the survey, about 38% of likely voters have already cast their ballots in the race.
Voters without party affiliation are voting heavily for Weil, with 57% of those polled intending to back the Democrat and 34% supporting Fine.
Hope Springs from Field PAC [dated website] volunteers have been knocking on doors in FL-06 since the first weekend of February. FL-06 has a special congressional election in April due to the resignation of incumbent GOP Rep Michael Waltz. We not only canvassed on Saturday and Sunday but this week, we are “dragging” voters from their doors to Early Voting centers. We aren’t knocking on doors before 11 am this week, but we are canvassing until Early Voting ends each day. For many of us, it’s a very long day.
For me, the day starts way before 11. We try to gather as much data as we can on who voted yesterday (and the days before) as well as whose ballots have been received so that we can cross then off our “walk” lists. Then we run the day’s turf for the number of volunteers we expect for the day (yesterday, we had 67 volunteers, but of various number of hours). For Tuesday, we cut 50 pieces of turf, but not all of that went out. For each of these 50 turfs, we also cut “auxiliary turf” that can be done if a volunteer finishes the original turf before the next shift.
Like Election Day, volunteers who do the dragging are expected to knock on a door three time (hence three rounds throughout the day), hoping to find the targeted voter at home. If we do (find the voter), then we ask them if they have voted yet (“early voting is happening right now!”) and, if not (as expected), “we can take you to vote right now!” This has actually been more successful in this district than usual, because there are a higher number of seniors, many of whom don’t mind being ferried to the polls!
Most of the Hope Springs’ volunteers don’t come from within FL-06, but from FL-04 and Duval County, areas where we’d canvassed last cycle. Volunteers in Duval had flipped the Jacksonville mayor from red to blue and we started with some hope to do the same here. But this is a really red district that, quite frankly, has had trouble offering credible Democratic candidates in most races. That was the case in this election, as well, with Josh Weil hailing from the Orlando area (Randy Fine, the GOP nominee, also lives outside the district; Fine is a Brevard county State Senator. The local GOP candidates basically dropped out after Trump endorsed Fine).
This has not deterred the tens of volunteers who have been travelling each Saturday (and/or Sunday these last four weeks, which i’ve gone down for). And the primary thing we have found is that the voters we’ve talked to — Democrats and independents — don’t know these two candidates. One volunteer wrote down, “doesn’t matter that we are from out of the district because so are the candidates!” Still, we use the “we are talking to our neighbors” introduction that infers that we come from within the district. Doesn’t mean we aren’t relying on our phone maps to find everything.
Hope Springs from Field PAC began knocking on doors in FL-06 in February. We target Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans. The voters we talk to continue to tell us they come away more invested in governance and feel more favorably towards Democrats in general because of our approach.
So far (not including yesterday), we’ve found 3,722 voters who’ve told us they intended to vote for Weil. But for our “dragging” operation, we are also including Democratic voters who have cast absentee ballots or voted early in prior election. We are also getting lists from outside groups with members in the area, adding them to our mobilization lists.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization
Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.
Saturday and Sunday meant a more hybrid approach. We had both GOTV teams and regular (or prospecting) teams out. 264 Hope Springs volunteers came out on Saturday and another 99 on Sunday (mostly repeats). We knocked on 19,720 doors on Saturday and another 7,098 on Sunday. On Saturday, volunteers talked to 1,666 voters and 601 on Sunday. 1,083 voters answered questions from our Issues Survey on Saturday and 386 did so on Sunday.
Clik here to view.
We are now asking voters if they approve of the sudden and deep cuts in federal programs and agencies led by Elon Musk. We started this on February 8th, so we’ve actually collected a number of weekend’s responses to this. We are including these numbers in our graph, although it may be more difficult to follow.
On Saturday, Housing Issues was the number 1 Issue for the voters we talked to, while the Economy was #1 on Sunday. Inflation was second on Saturday, while Housing Issues was second on Sunday. Budget Cuts, specifically to NOAA, was third on Saturday. Not sure if it was hurricanes or boats driving that one.
As i mentioned, we are now asking voters about DOGE, and this question is sparking conversation. To be fair, a lot of voters in Florida don’t really know about the DOGE aspect but they have something to say about proposed cuts (in Congress) to Medicaid — especially in the Sixth. And, let’s be honest, this is Weil’s only hope for victory.
Clik here to view.
On Saturday, 8% of the voters we talked to had something positive to say about DOGE; 41% disapproved. On Sunday, 13% approved while 40% disapproved. But it was also the first time that a DOGE item factored in our Issues list.
On Saturday, 18% approved of the job Trump was doing, 38% disapproved. Remember, these are Democrats and unaffiliated voters we are talking to. On Sunday, 17% approved while 41% disapproved.
We ask voters if they plan to vote in the special and a large number say they are planning on it. Of course, there is reason to suspect these plans are in theory. More people than we expect to turn out say they will vote in April. Regardless, we ask those who say they will vote in the special who they plan to support. On Saturday, 37% of the voters who said they planned to vote in the special election said they’d support the Democrat Weil. Not every one who said they would vote for Weil knew his name. On Sunday, 34% said they would vote for Weil.
On Saturday, 21% of the voters who said they planned to vote in the special said they would vote for MAGA Randy Fine. On Sunday, 23% said they would vote for Fine. We also ask about how voters feel about the job the governor is doing. On Saturday, 39% said they approved and 31% said they disapprove; on Sunday, 41% said they approved while 333% said they disapproved. Two things to note: historically, Floridians have approved of their governors, regardless. And Gov. DeSantis and Donald Trump aren’t always on the same page.
Clik here to view.
137 FL-06 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms on Saturday and 14 did so on Sunday. We send completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
2 voters filled out Incident Reports on Saturday, apparently all related to the same incident in 2024. Incident Reports are used to plan Election Protection activities, and will be combined with other, historical incidents and handed over to District and State Attorneys, Attorney Generals and the DoJ Civil Rights Division right before Election Day as a precaution against Election Day Incidents in November. Past polling place activity is a predictor of future voter intimidation or suppression activity.
On Monday, 54 volunteers showed up for GOTV canvassing while 67 came out yesterday. They targeted 26,284 houses on Monday and 28,118 on Tuesday multiple times each. These are either houses who already committed to voting for Weil or was a Democrat with an early voting history. On Monday, we reached 172 voters, 69 of whom got transported to their local Early Vote Center. On Tuesday, we reached 248 voters, and 103 of them were taken by a volunteer to go vote.
Unlike normal canvasses, we drive from door to door. Even if the doors aren’t far apart, time is critical here. There have been a couple of volunteers who we have given gift cards to to defray the expense of gasoline. Lunch and dinner was provided for by local Democrats, many of whom have expressed their curiosity about how things operated. “Y’all are good at this,” one of them said to which one of our Georgia supervolunteers replied, “no shit!” They’ve had a lot of practice in these last four years.
We knock on doors of Democratic and Independent voters. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit (in this case, lit provided by the campaign), something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand.
Hope Springs is a seat-of-the-pants grassroots-driven operation. We don’t have employees but we realize that to formalize and professionalize this effort that will have to change eventually.
Hope Springs has been called “the most comprehensive, organized grassroots voter contact project out there right now. It is truly astonishing that it is grassroots-based!” Not sure why it is “astonishing,” but i probably have more faith in grassroots or self-organized efforts because of my experience with Barack Obama’s early days in 2007.
If you are able to support Hope Springs from Field’s efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, we would appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization
If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address at the bottom of the page. Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!