President Obama maintains a sight lead of 48% to 44%, as the two party's head into their conventions, according to this registered voter poll reported in NBC/WSJ poll: Heading into conventions, Obama has four-point lead. Their July poll showed Obama leading by 49% to 43%, not much of a change given a summer of Romney gaffes, and the selection of Paul Ryan as V.P.
But, given the state of the economy, the biggest news may be that voters seem to be viewing the election as a choice between two vision of the future, rather than a referendum on how our country is doing, which has been our Democratic Party strategy for over a year.
While the state of the U.S. economy and the nation’s direction continue to pose significant obstacles for the president, the poll points to even steeper challenges for Romney, including concerns about his tax returns and a lack of support for his plans to overhaul Medicare.This poll also shows Obama leading Romney by 3% in 12 battleground states, this is down from his 8% lead, last month. But, the associated questions are more interesting, bolstering Democratic strategy so far on social issues, and Medicare vouchers.“The election has moved from a referendum to a choice,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “Mitt Romney is starting to accumulate a number of negatives on the personal front and issues front. ... Looking ahead to next week’s Republican convention, which begins on Monday in Tampa, Fla., Hart adds: “Mitt Romney has a lot of repair work to do with his image.”
But McInturff argues that there’s still a path to victory for Romney, especially with Obama’s numbers below that all-important 50 percent threshold for an incumbent.
“When a guy gets stuck at 48 percent, it doesn’t mean they are out of the clear,” he says. “It means they are in an incredibly competitive campaign.”